10 Business Trends for 2026 + Forecasts for 15 Industries 11-25

10 BIZ TRENDS: 1) Interest Rates, 2) Global Trade, 3) Elec-Car Sales, 4) Sporting Events, 5) Clean Tech Mfg, 6) Defence Spending, 7) Health Care, 8) Retail Sales, 9) Renewable Energy, 10) AI.

15 INDUSTRY FORECASTS: 1) Auto, 2) Defense, 3) Energy, 4) Financial Srvs, 5) Food & Farming, 6) Health Care, 7) Infra-Structure, 8) Media & Entertainment, 9) Metals & Mining, 10) Property, 11) Retail, 12) Shipping & Logistics, 13) Sport, 14) Tech & Telecoms, 15) Travel.

Top 10 Business Trends for 2026

Interest rates fall in America, Britain & China, boosting Bank Lending. However, diverging Financial Regulations cause headaches for many irrational or Intl Blankers.
Global Trade grows by less than 2% as companies in industries ranging from Auto and metal manufacturing to shipping and drugs reel from American protectionism.
Electric-Car Sales speed ahead, expanding by 15% globally, with China in the driving seat. America’s anti-green turn stalls carmakers’ plans for new electric models.
Big Sporting Events such as the men’s football World Cup in North America push sports spending to $450 billion, lift Ad revenues by 6% and add to the $1.8 trillion spent on Tourism.
Clean Tech Manufacturing helps metal prices climb by 7%, with nickel, copper and zinc among the beneficiaries. “Green” steel (eg, recycling scrap) is also in demand.
Defence Spending hits $2.9 trillion as NATO members increase outlays in response to military threats from Russia & China. America alone shells out over $1 trillion on Defence. [ What if they had to do Offense also ??? LoL ]
As Governments buy Weapons and Cut Debt, Funding for Health Care feels tight, Despite climbing by 5%. Pharmaceutical sales increase to $1.6 trillion – swelled by obesity drugs. (and we thot that was Swell)
Retail Sales grow by just 2% as Consumer Confidence wobbles amid global uncertainty. Online shops are hurt by tariffs, in turn chilling demand for Warehouse space.
Renewable Energy makes up 30% of Power Generation worldwide, surpassing Coal’s share. Yet Coal output remains strong, and America leaves the Paris Climate Treaty.
Artificial Intelligence plays a part in everything from Film-making to Insurance, and perhaps 4 out of 5 firms have tried generative AI. Profiting from it proves to be hard.

Trends were World totals based on 60 countries – with for over 95% of global GDP.

Business Environment Forecasts

World Economy will be subdued in 2026, with GDP growth ticking down to 2.4%. due to American tariffs, geo-political Strife and Policy uncertainty will hold back Investment and Trade. Still-soft GDP growth in America will reflect underlying fragility, while China will under-perform. As the dollar dips, interest rates in America, Britain & China will fall, while those in the EU & Japan stabilize.

1. Automotive

Commercial vehicles will be stuck in the slow lane in 2026 as global sales of new vcehicles languish. But purchases of new cars will increase by 2.5%, spurred by demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs). Sales of EVs will rise by 15% to 24 million, with China accounting for over half. But other car companies will power down their electric plans, as America abandons incentives and emissions goals. Audi will delay launching its last petrol model, and Aston Martin will put off unveiling its first EV. Honda will drop plans to develop and build an electric sports-utility vehicle at its Ohio plant. American EV sales will rise by just 2%.

Carmakers will shift strategies to cope with tariffs & trade barriers. Volkswagen and General Motors will expand their American plants. Chinese EV-makers, already in effect – barred from America, will ramp up exports almost everywhere else.

Europe will delay emissions fines to protect carmakers, but tighten emissions and safety standards, despite pressure to align with America. Britain will let self-driving cars loose on London’s streets. An influx of Chinese cars will push up Europe’s EV sales by 18%, and depress prices. Competition from China will cause worries about jobs, prompting the EU and Brazil to erect higher trade barriers. America, due to renew its trade deal with Canada and Mexico, will threaten more tariffs, further jolting carmakers.

2. Defense

Defense spending will hit a new high of $2.9 trillion in 2026. Prodded by threats from Russia & China—plus demands from Donald Trump—NATO members will aim to spend 5% of GDP on defense by 2035. Germany will lead the charge, increasing outlays by borrowing and through a special defense fund worth €100 billion ($117 billion). America’s defense budget will surpass $1trillion as the government considers a Golden Dome missile-defense shield. Eastern European countries will replenish Arms Stockpiles through joint procurement schemes—Poland may hit the 5% target 9 years early.

Inflation will force Russia to try to cut defense spending. But China will raise annual outlays, testing hypersonic and space-based platforms – while embedding artificial intelligence into command-and-control systems. Japan will also focus on hypersonic missiles and robotics as it lifts military spending towards 2% of GDP, and band together with Australia to build warships. South Korea will expand defense exports; North Korea will augment its Navy. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will boost defense manufacturing, relying on joint ventures. Defense companies will enjoy fat order books, but smaller, agile tech firms will seize the chance to expand also.

TO WATCH: Business explosion? The New START treaty will expire, allowing America and Russia to renew their NuclearArms Race. Clever new ways of creating atomic mayhem (eg, Space Nukes), as well as China’s ambitions as a nuclear power, will pose threats—and opportunities for bomb makers.

3. Energy

Sluggish economic growth and greater efficiency mean the world’s appetite for energy will rise by just 1% in 2026. Carbon emissions from fuel will rise by a mere 0.7%, – thanks to the spread of renewable energy. Its share of power generation, excluding hydro power, will pass 30%, overtaking Coal’s. China alone will add over 300 giga-watts of wind and solar power (enough to run a few hundred million homes), while its Coal emissions—over half the world’s total—will start falling. But hopes of hitting peak Coal will fade. India’s emissions from the black rock will grow; America will also increase Coal output. Backers of American wind and solar projects will race to beat the phase-out of federal tax incentives.

Despite Trumpian policies favouring fossil fuels, America’s oil drilling will falter as global oil prices ease. Global natural-gas prices will be buoyed by higher production costs and a craving for liquefied natural gas (LNG) – output of which will expand in countries ranging from Australia to the UAE. Europe will open new terminals to receive LNG – even as its own natural-gas prices dip.

As data centres devour Energy to fuel AI, global electricity demand will rise by 3%. France & Japan will revive nuclear plants and China will start new ones. But energy’s future lies with new power sources, such as Nuclear Fusion and Geo-Thermal.

TO WATCH: From January, American Renewables projects involving suppliers or funding from bug bears China, Russia, Iran or North Korea will forfeit tax credits.

4. Financial Services

Financiers in 2026 will confront lower interest rates and greater compliance costs in some big economies as policies diverge across the world. Interest rates will fall in America, Britain & China, boosting global bank lending by almost 5% in dollar terms. Japan’s efforts to raise rates will lose steam as the new government tries to bolster economic growth. Requirements on banks’ Capital will also vary. America will soften its “Basel III Endgame” rules, giving institutions room to evaluate their own risks, and the EU has delayed new risk rules by another year. But Switzerland, stung by Credit Suisse’s collapse, will rein back systemically important banks.

As global competition among financial firms heats up, China will push for consolidation among brokerages and banks, while looser antitrust rules in America will allow more Bank mergers. Digital payments will get safer and niftier. Britain will clamp down on firms like PayPal, a payments giant, forcing daily checks on customer funds. In south Asia, Project Nexus will ease cross-border payments. Japan will reclassify crypto-currencies to protect against scams, as America prepares to license stable-coins (tokens backed by conventional assets). Insurers, for their part, will raise premiums by 2.6%. Risks, from climate chaos to AI errors, will alsorise.

TO WATCH: Sustainability reporting will become mandatory in China, Japan, Brazil & the EU, which will also impose Carbon border-adjustment rules. America’s internal divisions will deepen: California will compel Climate reporting, but anti-green sentiment will rule in many states.

5. Food & Farming

Ample harvests will keep EU’s index of food and beverage prices declining from its peak in early 2025. Rice will stay on a downward trajectory, which began in 2024 when India removed a ban on exporting non-basmati varieties. Even in Japan, which has endured high prices, 40% of farmers expect rice harvested in 2026 to sell for less. Meanwhile, beverage prices will tumble, with those of arabica Coffee beans dropping by a quarter.

Behind the bountiful harvests lie neutral weather conditions. Neither the El Niño nor La Niña climate patterns will be very disruptive. But American farmers will grapple with another kind of disruption: a crackdown on illegal migration. About 13% of America’s farm workers are undocumented migrants. In poorer countries Donald Trump’s near-freeze on American humanitarian aid threatens to unravel vital food programs. Hunger will worsen in Africa and the Middle East.

UnHealthy indulgences will be under attack. Italy & Indonesia will slap taxes on sugary drinks. Britain will ban TV advertising for products high in fat, salt or sugar. In America, Nestlé will join many peers who have culled synthetic coloring from foods.

TO WATCH: In 2026, EU importers must prove that farm products, from cocoa beans to palm oil, do not come from recently deforested land. Farming accounts for most deforestation, to which the EU contributes through trade.

WHAT IF?

The situation is – to say the least – fluid. Around 60% of all fresh-water flows cross national borders, but only about 1/3 of countries have treaties governing such resources. Even among some that do, sparks have been flying. What if water-sharing deals break down in 2026? President Trump has withheld America’s flows to Mexico, to pressure it to meet supply obligations under a 1944 treaty, but Mexico is contending with droughts, which shows how climate change worsens water feuds.

The war in Gaza has made water-supply deals between Israel & Jordan fraught. But the biggest hotspot in 2026 could be the Ganges water-sharing treaty between Bangladesh & India – which will be up for renewal. Might it collapse? The river’s waters are crucial for irrigation, and Bangladesh wants more for the summer dry period. India seems unlikely to co-operate. Already, cross-border relations are strained. India showed itself willing to mix water with politics when it abandoned a pact with Pakistan. For Bangladesh, dwindling Indian supplies would cause economic pain. Textiles and farming could suffer—a serious blow for Bangladesh’s beleaguered population.

6. Health Care

Funding for Health care will feel tight in 2026, despite the world spending 5% more on it. Outlays will reach nearly $12 trillion, or 1/10 of global GDP. But governments will prioritize defense and cutting debt, plus Health-Care demand will rise as humanity ages. Japan – which has nearly 3 times as many oldies as children – will reach a landmark as those over 65 exceed 30% of the population. Health-system staffing will be stretched everywhere, despite help from Robots & AI.

Policy changes in America will cause far-reaching pain. Medicaid, the federal Health program for poor people, will be reined in: Hospitals will lose $80 billion in funding and citizens will lose too. Poorer countries will suffer, too, as America (with Argentina) quits the World Health Organization (WHO), slashing its funds by 15%. AIDS programs and childhood vaccinations could stall, allowing diseases to proliferate. The WHO will shed staff, but aims to get a treaty covering pandemics finalized. China will improve its people’s access to Health Care under the 15th five-year plan.

Pharmaceutical sales will rise by 5% to $1.6 trillion, bloated by Obesity drugs: Weight-loss medicines in pill form – will reassure the needle-phobic, while India & China roll out generic versions as patents expire. But pharma companies will be hurt by tariffs imposed in America (home to 40% of drug sales). To dodge them, they will shift production and cut prices there, or seek to raise sales & prices elsewhere. Because of federal-government cuts, American research spending will falter, pushing scientists abroad.

TO WATCH: Trials of personalized Cancer jabs will expand in 2026. The vaccines rely on mRNA technology (road-tested during the Covid-19 pandemic) and the vast database of Britain’s National Health Service. But America will be winding down 22 projects that aim to use mRNA for respiratory diseases like flu. Blame misguided suspicion of jabs.

7. Infra-Structure

In 2026, gross fixed investment – a proxy for infrastructure spending – will rise by 6% to over $30 trillion. But transport, energy, digital and water infra-structure will hit obstacles ranging from emissions targets to budget cuts. Nearly half of spending will be in Asia, which will favor building new roads over repairing old ones. Rail projects in China & Malaysia are on track for completion; Singapore will open an east-coast hub, while Vietnam will start a high-speed, north-south link.

A quarter of spending will be in Europe, where airport expansions will defy carbon caps. Renewable-energy projects will compensate – supported by a new legal framework for European grids. But Hungary & Serbia will begin a new Oil pipeline. The Middle East will invest in transport: the UAE will get its first intercity railway, although an ambitious project to connect the Gulf Co-operation Council’s six members will suffer more delays. Syria will rebuild war-damaged airports; Libya will open an international hub in Benghazi.

America will focus on building digital infrastructure. Amazon, Google, Meta & Microsoft will pump $400 billion into data centers (and additional money into energy projects) to power AI. Spending on water systems will dwindle as government funding seeps away.

8. Media & Entertainment

The quest for TV viewers’ attention in 2026 will begin a new, if familiar-feeling, episode. Traditional television’s losses will be streaming’s gains, as younger viewers in particular shun scheduled viewing. American adults will spend 7 hours a day glued to TV screens in 2026, according to eMarketer, an analytics firm, with just 2/5s devoted to traditional Telly. Some desperate legacy broadcasters will seek unlikely bedfellows—Netflix will start offering subscribers linear TV shows from TF1 – France’s most popular broadcaster. Warner Bros Discovery will orchestrate its own divorce, sundering cable operations from streaming and studio assets. The latter entity will be conjuring up a Harry Potter series.

Traditional film-makers will face growing competition from micro-dramas—bite-sized films shot vertically for streaming on phones, already in vogue in Asia. Film studios will look to AI for cost-cutting & inspiration. From 2026, using generative AI won’t disqualify films from Oscar nominations, with the lifting of a taboo on copying actors’ images & voices.

Advertising may also be heading for an AI-inspired overhaul. Meta, the owner of Facebook, aims to fully automate its Ad generation by 2026, preparing for the day when AI creates commercials from scratch. That is a threat to Ad agencies. Still, one of them, WPP, expects world advertising revenues to increase by around 6% in 2026, helped by the return of big Sporting events (see Sport).

TO WATCH:. Recognising the rise of canned Radio, the Golden Globes will accept nominations for “Best Podcast”. Advertisers have noticed: WARC Media expects Podcast-Ad spending to exceed $5.5 billion in 2026.

9. Metals & Mining

Metals will shine brighter in 2026 as prices climb by 7%, says EIU. Nickel prices will rise by 13%, powered by Battery demand and tighter supplies. Indonesia will keep its ban on exports as it launches a Nickel exchange. Copper, Lead & Zinc prices will also sparkle, thanks to the needs of clean-energy companies, drawing investment from Vale and other miners. But China will produce less Copper, while America’s tariffs fail to force miners to relocate there.

Amid their own tariff turbulence, Aluminum and Steel prices will rise. Indonesia will add Aluminum smelters, backed by money from China. India & America will churn out more steel, with Nippon Steel eyeing investment in both. But China will cut production to tackle over capacity. Measures to protect Europe’s steel industry are due to expire, though carbon border taxes will deter importers. “Green” steel output will grow; The EU and India will encourage scrap recycling.

Some metals will become less precious. Gold and Silver prices will fall slightly from recent highs as the dollar looks less wobbly and Investors relax. Prices of critical minerals and rare earths will be subdued, hurt by uncertain trade policies in China – the leader in rare earth. But supplies will start to become more diversified as miners bet on batteries. Chile will permit more Lithium projects in its salt flats, Australia will refine more rare earths and Madagascar will go for graphite.

10. Property

Lower interest rates in many countries will lift property markets in 2026, but unequally. Housing prices will be solid in smaller cities – cemented by cheaper mortgages and tight supply, while jittery investors in pricey mega-cities such as London & New York will regain confidence. China’s housing market will slowly revive amid a shake-out in the property industry. Dubai’s prospects will dim as housing stock piles up.

Governments ranging from Australia’s to Spain’s will dig foundations for affordable housing, to deal with high prices. Britain will tinker with planning laws. Taxes on short-stay lets will free up rentals in the Netherlands & Costa Rica. Household sizes will remain flat, with one roof sheltering 2.4 people in Europe, 3.4 globally and 5.3 in the Middle East & Africa.

Commercial property should benefit from lower interest rates – especially in America. Office demand will edge up as workers are prodded back to their desks, though completions in Europe will slump to their lowest since 2017. Chinese companies will aim to use space more efficiently, adding to over supply. Retail traffic will rise in glitzy malls across Asia & the Middle East, but warehouse leasing will cool alongside E-commerce’s fortunes. Hotels will be hot: over 2,500 are set to open in 2026.

TO WATCH: By May, EU countries must build the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive into national law, committing them to carbon-cutting. New buildings need to be energy-efficient and older ones must be retro-fitted, or they could become stranded assets.

WHAT IF?
In 2026, Western sanctions on Russia could finally force it to lay down arms in Ukraine. At least, so hopes Ukraine’s president, Zelensky. Cooler heads think Russia’s economy could sputter as its sovereign wealth fund dries up or the West further throttles Russian exports. Others argue, however, that the West must loosen economic restrictions to bring about peace. What if sanctions on Russia are lifted in 2026? If Russia honored a ceasefire, America might relent and an uneasy Europe follow suit. Travel bans targeting individual Russians could soon go. So might curbs on Russian imports of food & medicines, plus Bank lending. Such moves could smooth progress towards a full Peace deal. To keep Russia in line, the West would need bargaining chips—perhaps holding back Russia’s re-entry to SWIFT, a payments system, and the lifting of energy measures. Ultimately, relaxing sanctions would ease Russia’s budget woes. Europe’s energy costs would fall, while India and others would escape secondary sanctions. The potential dividends of peace are great, but the path towards it is narrow.

11. Retail

President Trump has managed to dent the confidence of shoppers and shops alike. Faced with Tariffs and trade frictions, consumers around the world will keep a firm grasp on their purses in 2026. Globally, real growth in Retail sales will only be 2%. For bigger rises in retail volumes, look to markets with low exposure to trade: India & the Philippines will chalk up growth of 5% & 7% respectively, thanks also to their youthful populations.

Trade wars will force consumer-goods makers to re-configure supply chains. By May 2026 Nike, a sportswear giant, aims to cut reliance on Chinese imports to America from 16% to the high single digits. Trade curbs will also slow the sales of online shops, some of which will be hurt by tighter regulation too. New e-commerce rules in Turkey, for instance, will strengthen consumer protections & grant unconditional returns of some electronics products.

Widespread tariffs on cheap Chinese stuff could help other retailers grab market share. IKEA will expand its physical presence in America, opening two new stores in 2026. South Africa’s biggest clothing retailers—Pepkor, The Foschini Group & Mr Price—will launch up to 600 stores by 2026. And Spain’s Inditex will open the world’s largest Zara store, spanning 14,500 square meters, in Belgium.

TO WATCH: Walmart is investing $500m to acquire Robots to stock its shelves and pack up many online orders by 2026. This will enable the retailer to cut costs—along with thousands of jobs.

`12. Shipping & Logistics

The global shipping industry will pass through treacherous waters in 2026, with the Middle East still a danger spot. An Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz, or renewed Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, would force more Cargoes round the Cape of Good Hope, taking longer and costing more. American protectionism & a lethargic global economy will keep growth in trade volumes to 1% in the rich world and 3% elsewhere. A further risk comes from Shippers’ burgeoning fleets: an increase in capacity equal to millions of standard shipping containers is under construction.

Ship-owners may slash operations to keep freight rates from sinking, and may also find they don’t have enough sailors to run all the new ships. By 2026 the International Chamber of Shipping, an industry body, expects a shortfall of 90,000 trained sea-farers, for lamentable reasons. Russians & Ukrainians, previously keen merchant sailors, are too busy fighting each other. Such geo-political tensions make the profession less alluring for other mariners, too.

Reaching rural residents will be a big focus for logistics firms in 2026: Amazon is spending $4 billion to triple the size of its rural delivery network by year end. No wonder UPS, an American logistics stalwart, is planning to rely less on Amazon for shipping business. By the second half of 2026, UPS expects to slash its transport volumes for Amazon by over 50%.

13. Sport

Against a background of discord and de-globalization, the sport industry in 2026 will aim to prosper through cross-border exchanges. Mexico, Canada & America will co-host the quadrennial men’s World Cup, displaying football’s global growth: a record 48 teams will play 104 matches (Spain is the favourite). Madrid will host a match in America’s National Football League and London a National Basketball Association game. Ice hockey, born in Canada, will head to Switzerland for its world championships. The Asian Games will take place in Japan under the slogan “imagine one Asia”.

Competition will thrive off the field, too, as advertisers bid for fans’ attention (see Media and Entertainment). To reap their own rewards, TV schedulers must plan carefully: in February for America’s Super Bowl, worth $800 million in advertising revenue. They must vie for viewers with the Winter Olympics & Paralympics.

Sports organizers will be tested by climate change. In July’s Tour de France, starting in Spain’s mountains, riders may struggle more with heat than hills. Ski mountaineering will make its Olympic debut in Italy, where artificial snow is widely used. Also drawing attention to climate change will be India’s Pangong Frozen Lake Marathon, held at 14,000 feet above sea level. In 2026, it will be dubbed “The Last Run”.

14. Technology & Telecoms

Expect another year of excitement, mixed with frustration, over Artificial Intelligence (AI). The EU’s strict AI Act will enter into full force in August, but regulators will struggle to keep pace with the technology’s progress. In 2026 Sam Altman of OpenAI, the firm behind ChatGPT, expects AI to start creating “novel insights”. Perhaps 80% of companies will have used generative-AI applications, up from less than 5% in 2023, according to Gartner, a consultancy. Still, many firms will labor to make money from AI. To capitalize on AI’s potential, workers and processes will need retooling—and ambitious plans are afoot.

By 2026, India alone will need 1 million workers trained to work with AI. Cognizant, an American consultancy, itself pledges to train 1 million people.

Tech companies are creating a new generation of AI chips to make computers even cleverer. The AI boom should spur demand for semi-conductors (countering a slowdown in smart-phone shipments). Samsung will open its first chip-making plant in America, where Taiwan’s TSMC will hasten to open its second facility, striving to stay dominant. Back home, it will produce the most advanced semiconductors yet—so-called two-nanometer chips that could boost computing speeds by 10-15%.

Further abetting AI will be spreading Internet connections: more than 85 out of every 100 people will have access to the Internet in 2026. Web services beamed from space will help. Still, Amazon’s Project Kuiper broadband network will probably miss a deadline to launch more than 1,500 satellites by July.

15. Travel & Tourism

Tourism will triumph in 2026, overcoming concerns about Travel restrictions, emissions curbs and over-crowding. A record 2 billion International Travellers will spend $1.8 trillion, with a quarter of them hailing from China & America. Outbound travel from India will leap. China will attract 8% of international visitors, boosted by a new Legoland theme park and visa-free travel for some. But visits to America will rise by just 2%, curbed by border controls and high prices—though football fans may flock to the World Cup in North America (see Sport).

Ever-fashionable Europe will keep tabs on its crowds of visitors using biometric IDs and an authorisation system for visa-free Travellers. Elsewhere, high-growth hotspots will include South-East Asia and perhaps some more improbable-sounding places: Russia will be trying out visa-free access for Brazilians, South Africans & others. Saudi Arabia will hope that Amaala, a luxury-tourism development, brings a surge in arrivals.

At least 16 new Cruise Ships will leave harbors, despite emissions controls in Norway & Canada plus visitor caps at European ports such as Barcelona and Cannes. Airlines will have one last summer of voluntary emissions targets before the Carbon Offsetting & Reduction Scheme for International Aviation arrives. In the meantime Airlines will inaugurate new carbon-belching routes across the Atlantic.

TO WATCH: Shipping’s share of global emissions is stuck at 2%. But in 2026, the first hydrogen-powered Cruise Ship, Viking Libra, will debut. Propelled by fuel cells, its only waste product is one that can be safely emitted at sea: water vapor.

10 Business Trends for 2026 + Forecasts for 15 Industries