but the best way to Predict it is to Invent it. “because the future belongs to those who prepare for it.”
Topics: AR/VR, digital Transformation/Innovation teams, Cloud, AI, Apps, Platforms, IoT, Wearables, Digital Enhancement, IT, DX, Bench Marks.
IDC released its Tech industry predictions for 2017 & near future. The predictions covered many trends driving success today and in the future, from: 1) how the entire global economy will be re-shaped by digital transformation, 2) the transition of all enterprises from being “digital immigrants” to being “digital natives,” 3) the scaling up of innovation accelerators, 4) the emergence of “the 4th platform” (a new set of technologies that will become mainstream in ten years), 5) drastic changes in how enterprises connect to their customers, & 6) the ecosystem becoming as important for business success as IP. Here are IDC’s predictions.
A. 2017, 30% of consumer-facing G2000 companies will experiment with AR/VR as part of their marketing efforts. More and more companies will connect with consumers through “immersive interfaces” including augmented reality AR/VR virtual reality.
B. By year end 2017, over 70% of the Global 500 will have dedicated digital Transformation/Innovation teams. 60% of F100 companies had already formed a dedicated team or a business unit focused on digital transformation.
C. By the end of 2017, revenue growth from information-based products will be twice that of the rest of the portfolio for a third of G2000 companies.
D. By 2018, major IT distributors will have transitioned at least a third of their business from hardware sales to Cloud services sales/brokering.
E. By 2018, most Cloud providers outside of the top 10 will offer brokered access to their leading competitors’ Cloud services.
F. By 2018 Cloud will be distributed with 60% of IT done off-premise and 85% by multi-cloud by 2018 and 43% of IoT will be processed at the edge in 2019; the cloud will be trusted and by 2020 it will be where trusted and secured IT lives, enhanced by blockchain-based security; the cloud will be concentrated and by 2020, the top 5 cloud Iaas/PaaS players will control at least 75% of the market share (vs about 50% in 2016).
G. By 2018, 75% of developer teams will include AI functionality in one or more applications or services. Last year this prediction was at 50% and the acceleration is due to the fact that the cloud is “democratizing adoption” of AI functionality.
H. By 2018, the number of Industry Collaborative Clouds will triple to more than 450. By 2018, enterprises pursuing Digital Transformation Strategies will expand their developer teams by 2-3X.
I. In 2018, the monthly active user base of consumers using Mobile augmented-reality Apps (e.g., Pokemon Go) will exceed 400 million.
J. By 2019, more than 50% of the value of software will be monetized through “things” + consumer & business services.
K. By 2019, 3rd Platform technologies and services will drive nearly 75% of tech spending – growing at 2X the rate of the total market. The increase is due to a “snowball effect,” as these technologies are no longer “emerging” but have become the default choice.
L. By 2019, over 110 million consumer devices with embedded intelligent assistants will be installed in U.S. households.
M. By 2019, 40% of digital transformation initiatives – and 100% of IoT initiatives – will be supported by AI capabilities. Top 3 AI use cases in terms of spending, says IDC, are: medical diagnostics and treatment, quality management in manufacturing, and automated service agents in retail.
N. In 2019, companies will deploy Earworn Wearables, with AI-enabled voice interface, as Digital Assistants for customer-facing roles (ie, retail).
O. In 2019, worldwide spending on digital transformation initiatives will reach $2.2 trillion, almost 60% > 2016.
P. By 2020, 50% of the 2000 largest Global companies (G2000) will see the majority of their business depend on their ability to create digitally-enhanced products, services, & experiences. We will see a “deep core” transformation of what enterprises are all about and how they behave in the marketplace.
Q. By 2020, 67% of enterprise IT infrastructure and software will be for cloud-based offerings. What clouds are and what they can do will change, IDC predicts.
R. By 2020, DX teams will source 80%+ of their solution components from open source communities. > 20% of commercial media on Facebook will be 360-degree VR, as social goes “immersive.” Dark horse scenario: 20% of all social media is 360-degree by 2020.
S. By 2020, almost 60% of enterprises will actively participate in “compliance” Clouds. By 2020, 75% of F500 companies will be suppliers of digital services through Industry Collaborative Clouds. 90%+ of Industry Collaborative Clouds will partner with a Cloud mega-platform provider.
T. By 2020, over 70% of Cloud services providers’ revenues will be mediated by Channel Partners/Brokers. There will be a complete “reboot of the channel community,” as cloud providers will need help reaching potential customers and supporting their Cloud services.
U. By 2020, all enterprises’ performance will be measured by a demanding new set of Benchmarks in leadership, customer Engagement, Digitization of new & Traditional offerings, Operational efficiency & Organizational agility. At least 1/3 of leaders in every industry will fail to clear these digital transformation hurdles.
V. By 2020, 1/3 of Health/Life Sciences & Consumer Product companies will begin to develop the first products & services tightly integrating 3rd Platform technologies with the human body. “Augmented Humanity” offerings will be mainstream in the mid-2020s.
W. By 2021, the “cloud broker” landscape serving SMBs will become highly industry-specific, offering cloud-based business services.
X. By 2021, a third of CEOs & COOs of G2000 companies will have spent at least 5 years in a tech leadership role. The innovation accelerators of the 3rd platform – AI, IoT, AR/VR, robotics, 3D printing, & Next-Gen security–will become mainstream.
Y. In 2017–2021 period, 7 of the Top 10 AI Use Cases will be industry-focused and will account for 85% of top 10 Use Case investment. We will see a “battle of AI platforms,” with a strong competition for developers in AI space.
Z. New Benchmarks will include 35% improvement in Net Promoter Score, 100% growth in revenues from information-based products, 20% of processes are self-healing, and 50% reduction in management layers. These performance levels will be “the new normal” for all enterprises.
Delta. The 4th Platform will be the integration of digital technologies with human bio-systems, and the use of digital technologies to engineer biological systems at the cellular and subcellular level. “The 4th platform is us,” says IDC. These set of technologies will provide humans with a wide variety of enhancements and we will see early adopters from 2021 to 2026. Ethical and legal issues will emerge, and there a lot of controversy and debate will surround the emergence of the 4th
Conclusion. What will see as a result of all of these changes, says IDC, is the transformation of the traditional enterprise value chain to a new “enterprise social graph” or “the enterprise innovation graph,” linking the enterprise to its various communities: developers, channel, industry platforms, data providers + customers & fans, as we already see today with Amazon, Apple, & Salesforce.
Comments: Do you see any other Trends for 2017 7 beyond?
from Digital Thirst 02 Dec 16 enhanced by Peter/CXO Wiz4biz