from Innovation Excellence.com 09 Sept 14 enhanced by Peter/CXO Wiz4biz
Technology Cycle, because it’s growing so rapidly, means the future wont look much like the past. Contexts change and when they do, old rules no longer apply. Following them blindly does not honor the past, but diminishes it, by confusing loyalty with wisdom. Since 1960, the average lifespan of a company on the S&P 500 has fallen from > 60 years to < 20 today. The power of technology will increase as much in the next 18 months, as it has in the last 30 years. Clearly, Technology cycles have begun to outpace Planning cycles. We need to learn to manage not for stability, but for innovation. Can you trust Data? In the old days, it paid to be data-driven. You researched the market, developed insights & planned a strategy. It wasn’t enough to have an innovative idea, you had to show the numbers. Unfortunately, the numbers were usually wrong. Sometimes, they were off by a little, sometimes by a lot, but they were usually wrong. They were backward-looking and based on small samples. Even if they were prepared responsibly—& often they were not—and statistically significant to 95% confidence, there was still ample room for error. The new age of innovation, requires a big data mindset, where we’re not trying to be right, but to become “less wrong” over time by collecting & analyzing, real world information in real time and adjusting accordingly. Strategy also needs to take a new approach, where “Plan & Execute” is replaced by Execute, Evaluate & Release a new version.
Agent-based Modeling is another promising approach in using big data to build simulation models. This differs from previous methods that optimized for one variable or another by taking into account the inter-actions among a variety of factors, which are then reconciled with real world data as it comes in. Accuracy is often as high as 90%. Failing in the world of bits is far cheaper than failing in the world of atoms, so simulations allow us to test any number of “what if” scenarios before we invest in any particular approach.
Co-Opting Disruption through Open Innovation. Big organizations generally don’t do disruption well. They tend towards stability because that’s what people want from them – consistency – good quality products & reliable service. (ie, McDonalds) You can count on established firms to give you what you want, when you want it, deliver on time and be around tomorrow if a problem arises. However, that creates a problem, because Consistency, not change, is the state that is most dangerous in highly competitive environments.
[ Consistency, not change, Open Innovation, Disrupting the Disruptors, Buzzards, People Networking, in Premium Content ]